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thomas davison
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Joined: 03 Jun 2005
Posts: 3477
Location: northumberland

PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 12:09 pm    Post subject: SOCIAL UPHEAVAL IS A FOREGONE CONCLUSION NOW Reply with quote

Social upheaval is a foregone conclusion. What are you doing about it?
by Simon Black · View Comments

August 18, 2011
Zell am See, Austria

Let’s be honest– most history books are crap. They have a terrible way of oversimplifying major cultural shifts, as if someone flips a light switch and society turns on a dime.

Take Martin Luther, for example. In 1517, Luther publicly posted a list of 95 grievances against the Catholic Church in Wittenberg, Germany, and history credits him with sparking the great ‘reformation’ that eventually created the Church of England and protestant movement.

This is mere historical convenience. There were hundreds, even thousands of people who came before Luther. Average, everyday people were just as fed up with the church selling indulgences and putting its blessings up to the highest bidder. Society was ready for a major shift and already moving in that direction. Luther gets credit for the spark.

Similarly, the history books of the future may look back on Tunisian fruit merchant Mohammed Bouazizi as the spark of the next ‘global reformation’. If you recall, Bouazizi lit himself ablaze in protest of Tunisia’s pitifully repressive economic conditions, and revolution ensued across the region.

Tunisia fell. Egypt fell. Libya was invaded by a peace-prize winning US president. Civil uprisings spread to Syria, Bahrain, Algeria, Morocco, etc. We would be fools to think this was all due to a fruit vendor.

Like Martin Luther, Bouazizi is a symbol… a metaphor for society’s pent up frustration that had been building for years.

This frustration is worldwide. The entire world, which cheered the Arab Spring uprisings across the Middle East and North Africa, has been watching in complete shock as riots spread across Europe. Riots in London, riots in France, riots in Greece, riots in Spain.

Whatever excuse is laid to explain the upheaval, it’s just a superficial trigger. People are frustrated. They’re angry. They feel like they’ve been wronged, left behind to rot without any chance of a decent livelihood. And they’re so angry they’re willing to get violent and destroy property.

These are the same sorts of conditions that breed today’s terrorists. Someone who’s willing to strap a bomb to his chest has no economic prospects. He’s desperate… and much more easily influenced to do things that are destructive. You don’t see too many successful people making six-figures strapping any bombs to their chests.

Bottom line, when someone’s livelihood is taken away, all bets are off, and that’s precisely what’s happening right now. Deteriorating economic conditions are driving so much social unrest around the world, and the trend is definitely not our friend.

World governments recognize this, and they essentially have two responses from their canned playbook.

The first response is to “do something.” In the US, for example, Barack Obama recently announced a new wave of fiscal stimulus… because, hey, it worked out so well the first few times they dumped a bunch of money into the economy.

This is exactly the WRONG thing they should be doing. It puts the country deeper into debt and generates marginal return on investment. Even the Congressional Budget Office’s own analysis indicated that Obama’s first stimulus plan cost the American taxpayer between $225,000 and $631,000 for every job that it ‘saved’ or created after 18-months.

Even a complete moron can see that this is a waste of money, and ruinous for the economy. Hang on for round two, folks.

The second thing that governments are doing is curtailing freedoms. These people will take ANY STEPS NECESSARY to keep the party going. Sure, everyone cheered when Egyptians used Facebook and Twitter to launch a revolution… but when people do it in the London or San Francisco, they take immediate steps to shut off access.

San Francisco’s BART transit system spokesman Linton Johnson summed it up best in an interview with KRON-4 news when he said that transit passengers have “no right to free speech…” So much for the Constitution.

These two things– economic deterioration and the increasingly heavy hand of Big Brother– are the essential ingredients in revolution. When combined, widespread social upheaval is nearly a foregone conclusion.

Thinking people need to recognize the risks and consequences at stake, and formulate a plan to prepare for them. My ultimate recommendation is to set up a safe haven location outside of your home country– a crash pad in a stable place where you can feel secure in your family’s safety and watch the turmoil on television instead of from your front porch.

I’d like to hear from you about this– what do you think is going to happen, and how are you protecting yourself
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thomas davison
Party Leader

Joined: 03 Jun 2005
Posts: 3477
Location: northumberland

PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

When food shortages and rising prices drive people to desperation, social unrest soon follows. It's as true today as it was in 18th-century France. According to a new analysis of food prices and unrest, the 2008 global food riots and ongoing Arab Spring may be a preview of what's coming.

"When you have food prices peak, you have all these riots. But look under the peaks, at the background trend. That's increasing quite rapidly, too," said Yaneer Bar-Yam, president of the New England Complex Systems Institute. "In one to two years, the background trend runs into the place where all hell breaks loose."

Bar-Yam and his colleagues are hunters of mathematical signals in social data: market trends andeconomic patterns, ethnic violence, Hollywood movies. In their latest expedition, described 11 Aug in the prepublication online arXiv, they focus on the 2008 food riots and the Arab Spring, both of which followed year-long surges in basic food prices.

The researchers are hardly the first to portray food problems as a spark that inflames social inequality and stokes individual desperation, unleashing and amplifying impulses of rebellion. The role of food prices in triggering the Arab Spring has been widely described. Their innovation is a pair of price points on the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization's food price index: about 215 in current prices, or 190 when corrected for inflation.

It's at those points where, on a graph of food prices and social unrest between 2004 and 2011, unrest breaks out. But whereas they were crossed by price jumps in 2008, Bar-Yam and colleagues calculate that the underlying, steady trend -- driven primarily by commodity speculation, agricultural crop-to-fuel conversion and rising prices of fertiliser and oil -- crosses those points between 2012 and 2013.

"Once we get there, the peaks aren't the problem anymore. Instead it's the trend. And that's harder to correct," said Bar-Yam.

At that point, widespread political unrest and instability can be expected, even in countries less troubled than those in North Africa and the Middle East.

"When the ability of the political system to provide security for the population breaks down, popular support disappears. Conditions of widespread threat to security are particularly present when food is inaccessible to the population at large," write Bar-Yam and colleagues in arXiv. "All support for the system and allowance for its failings are lost. The loss of support occurs even if the political system is not directly responsible for the food security failure, as is the case if the primary responsibility lies in the global food supply system."

The analysis comes with caveats, one of which is the possibility that it's the dynamics of spiking prices, rather than a particular price level, that unleashes unrest. But according to Bar-Yam, even the underlying trends are rising at an extremely fast pace. "If things change slowly rather than rapidly, there would be a different response," he said. "If it was going to happen over a period of 10 to 20 years, we'd be talking about something else. But the circumstance we're talking about is one of changes in a year or two."

Not only do we have food price rises but every other type of price rise, gas, electricy, petrol, travel, all blamed of course on global warming or some such mythical event.
It will not be long now before we will really be rioting for every day things such as food, companies cannot keep putting up pay to compensate so you either eat or you heat or you revolt.

I feel that the government knows this is a big bird coming to roost which they will not be able to handle like the lies they have been spewing out lately and people have seen what happens to looters, nothing worth talking about, is it down to the banks? is it down to over population?
it is down to over population and lack of liquid gold, water.

We have to reduce our population, we cannot feed more than 32 million people with the amount of land we have in this country and save water, reducing our population will be easy, get rid of those people who should not be here, that the first step to survival.
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Location: Norfolk

PostPosted: Sun Aug 21, 2011 2:04 pm    Post subject: Egypt and food Reply with quote

I heard that President Mubarak was subsidizing bread and using 80% of the GDP of Egypt to do it. The Egyptians are overpopulated and on the brink of starvation. They mostly have no work and can buy bread at 1Cent US per loaf. They need a lot for their 14 or more kids. Is it any wonder they rioted and what improvements do they think will come??
Tourist trade is their best money earner but as they too slide into muslim fundamentalism this will dry up. They persecute the coptic Christians and thats all hushed up.
This is just one stinking country in the Middle East. So much for the rest.
We must be mad to interfere and should keep away and let them sort themselves out.
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