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thomas davison

Europe's on the brink of probably the gravest and most frightening tumult of our lifetime
By Max Hastings
PUBLISHED: 23:37, 18 June 2012 | UPDATED: 00:10, 19 June 2012

We spent most of yesterday on a beach in Devon � the family and me, that is. The sun was shining, the sand golden; gentle surf washed the shore against a backdrop of soft woods and green fields rising from the shore.

I mention these holiday scenic details only to make the point that our world yesterday � and yours, too, I expect � looked pretty much the way it did the day before and, for that matter, in years gone by.

Because this is so, because no bombs are dropping, nor Viking hordes sacking villages nor dinosaurs roaming city streets, it is difficult for us all to get our minds around the notion that hell is a�popping; that Europe is in the early stages of what will probably prove its gravest and most frightening tumult of our lifetimes.

Crisis averted? Because we cannot see events imploding around us, it is easy to overlook the unfolding drama in the doomed eurozone
Our political leaders have not mentioned this, not told us Europe is up the creek without a paddle, because half of them are in denial about what is going on, and not one has a sensible idea what to do about it.

Sunday�s Greek election was trailed for weeks as a make-or-break event. Nobody with a brain the size of a sultana believed it, but we dutifully listened to the TV news coverage, and waited with unbated breath for a result.

We got a minority victory for a party notionally committed to keeping Greece in the euro by sustaining a national austerity programme that has already reduced the nation�s economy by 20 per cent since 2007, and next year promises to cut wages and pensions by another 15 per cent.

Global markets flickered momentarily upwards in the wake of the announcement, then fell back in disbelief. They recognise the following about Greece�s predicament: if it persists with the austerity programme necessary to cling on in the euro, only penury and political extremism lie ahead.

The country is no more fit to share a currency with Germany than I am to play tennis with Andy Murray. There is no more chance of Greece repaying its debts than of Boris Johnson giving up women.

Voting: Sunday's election was considered a 'make or break' vote, although few believed it would result in decisive action
Greece, like Italy, espouses a historic culture of corruption and tax-evasion that may enable those countries to muddle along in splendid isolation, but disqualifies them as partners in an economic union with northern Europe.

Antonis Samaras, leader of Greece�s New Democracy party and prospective Prime Minister, said yesterday: �There will be no new adventures or political games. We will work with our European partners and add to our obligations the needed policies for growth and combating unemployment.�

Not even Samaras himself can believe a word of this to be true.

Greece cannot and will not fulfil its financial obligations. Its new Government�s only hope is that promises of future good behaviour persuade the Germans to pick up Greece�s bills, keeping the game going for another round.

The second big weekend European political event was the Socialist triumph in France�s parliamentary elections.

The outcome of this was to put fantastists securely in charge in Paris as well as Athens.

Battle: Alexis Tsipras (left), leader of radical left Syriza party, has vowed to continue the fight against Greece's crippling austerity measures while Antonis Samaras (right) concentrates on forming a Coalition government

The Socialists� mantra � matching that of our own Labour Party�s Ed Balls � is �growth�.

What does that mean?

Raising taxes on the rich to avoid reducing the entitlements of the French people, beneficiaries of one of the most generous welfare systems in the world.

�Going for growth�, in Balls/Hollande-speak, means printing money governments do not have, to give voters goodies their societies cannot rationally afford.

The new Socialist President, Francois Hollande, has a nice face � several handsome women think so, anyway. But he is less fit to govern a country than your cat.

Not fit to govern: French President Francois Hollande has cut the pensionable age, after his predecessor Sarkozy raised it from 60 to 62
One of the few sensible things done by his predecessor, Nicolas Sarkozy, was to raise France�s pensionable age from 60 to 62, against fierce resistance.

Hollande, however, has immediately cut it again to fulfil an election promise.

This largesse will be funded by imposing tax rates that should cause most French people above poverty level to flee the country.

Meanwhile, in Italy, the ten-year bond yield stands above a punitive 6 per cent; and the Spanish Government is obliged to offer 7 per cent to persuade investors to buy its debt. These numbers mean that the markets have no faith at all in these countries� ability to stay in the euro. Investors are convinced that the whole rickety racket is on the brink of collapse, and they are almost certainly right.

But the weirdest spectacle of all is that of the German ruling class singing in chorus �We�re off to see the Wizard, the wonderful Wizard of Oz�.

The brain of the most traditionally hard-headed nation in Europe has collapsed into mush.

Germany�s rulers are committed to keeping the euro afloat through fiscal union � common economic policies � to impose Teutonic discipline on the weaker brethren.

Almost nobody outside Germany believes this idea can work in practice.

Sure, the Greeks, Italians, Spanish and Portuguese will agree to anything to get cheques out of Berlin.

But it is impossible to believe that these nations� finance ministries will henceforward submit to permanent audit by German accountants.

How is fiscal union feasible without political union? And who believes that such a pipedream is possible in the short term?

'There�s no more chance of Greece repaying its debts than Boris Johnson giving up women'
The southern Europeans will fudge and fumble and fiddle the books as they have done throughout history.

It is bizarre that Germany�s chancellor Angela Merkel, a clever woman, sets such store by getting her European partners to sign agreements they are quite incapable of keeping.

Southern Europe will be condemned to almost perpetual slump, soaring unemployment and bad debt as the price of staying in the euro.

This in turn will tempt impoverished and desperate voters towards the lunatic fringes. The leader of Italy�s anti-establishment Five Star movement, Beppe Grillo, is a populist extremist we are likely to hear more of.

It is hard to disagree with his words yesterday: �The EU is out of control and the euro is a box of dynamite with a fuse that is getting ever shorter. And we are sitting on top of it�.

Questionable: German Chancellor Angela Merkel has made an error in getting her European partners to sign agreements they simply cannot uphold
So where does Britain end up in all this?

I seldom pity politicians, but ours deserve some sympathy, as almost impotent spectators of unfolding disaster.

Since we are not eurozone members, there is little a British Government can usefully do or say.
Indeed, David Cameron�s public pleas to the Europeans to get an act together only irritates them.

Three months ago, I attended an Anglo-German conference at which the German delegates expressed their conviction that the euro crisis was on track towards solution.

This caused the British contingent to shake our heads in dismay and disbelief.

These Germans were not ignorant nobodies � they included members of the Bundestag and European parliament.

They also displayed near-unanimity that Germany should and would lead the eurozone towards fiscal integration.

Some of us asked whether it was likely that we, the British, could remain members of the European Union under such circumstances.

They answered politely that they hoped so.

But it was obvious they did not really believe it, and nor did we.

Pity: David Cameron's pleas to the Europeans have fallen on deaf ears, and since we are not eurozone members, there is little more for our government to say
For many months past, there has been almost no political debate in Britain about the EU. This is partly because few of our politicians want one, and partly because it is hard to have an argument about our place in Europe until we see what Europe is on offer.

It seems highly likely that a referendum about our membership of the EU will take place in Britain within the next few years. But it is impossible to hold one until we know what question should be asked.

My own strong hunch � and I say this without any pleasure � is that within a decade Britain will find itself outside the European Union.

This is not because most of the British governing class want such an outcome, but because a German-dominated Europe will confront us with a choice so stark � absolutely renouncing national sovereignty or getting out � that the outcome is inevitable.

We shall leave.

The bust-up could come quite swiftly if Chancellor Merkel persists with her determination to impose a Europe-wide financial transaction tax to fund the next stage towards eurozone integration. This, in turn, would devastate the City of London.

It is unlikely that David Cameron could persuade the Tory party to swallow such a measure, even if he himself would do so.

Crunch time: A referendum about our membership of the EU seems inevitable within the next few years, and it's my belief that we will find ourselves outside the EU within the decade
Though our separation from Europe looks increasingly plausible, I do not share the enthusiasm of those of UKIP�s persuasion, who see this as a glorious liberation. The Germans at the conference I attended in April warned repeatedly that we would find life alone, out in mid- Atlantic, remarkably chilly.

On this they are probably right. In a world of giant economic blocs, and especially up against China, Britain looks ill-fitted to compete on its own.

'Within a decade Britain will find itself outside the European Union'
But what else can we do if a statist, over-regulated, undemocratic and unaccountable Europe remains bent on economic and political suicide in a mindless, obsessive pursuit of the euro-ideal?
It is an extraordinary spectacle: the 17 nations of the eurozone, and for that matter the 27 of the European Union, committed to preserving the eurozone in its present form, even though this course seems bound to end in train wreck for southern Europe, if not for the entire continent.

Day after day, ever more desperate expedients are employed to patch up the latest crisis � �100 billion for Spanish banks, new guarantees for Italy. Inevitably these ruinously expensive sticking plasters offer no prospect of resolving the core issue, which is that members of the euro have demonstrated that they do not and cannot continue together in a common currency block.

The truth is that the weaker brethren of the EU have got to go, for their own sake and everybody else�s.

There is absolutely no happy scenario at the end of this crisis � only a choice between variations of calamity.

If the eurozone survives at all, it can only be as a German economic empire in which the subject peoples will sooner or later find colonial status intolerable. The Greeks will surely never accept a long-term future as a subjugated tribe � the Bantus of Europe.

Meanwhile, it is impossible to believe the Germans will indefinitely provide cash to keep the French people in the style to which they think themselves entitled.

The economic stresses afflicting southern Europe could give way to social upheavals of which past Greek riots are a mere taster.

Sooner or later, Europe will awaken to reality, but almost certainly too late for the eurozone and perhaps even for the European Union.

One generation of European political leaders, that of Jacques Delors and Helmut Kohl, created a fantasy economic and political structure which is now collapsing about our ears.

Their successors, the generation of Merkel, Sarkozy, and Hollande, have proved incapable of repairing it, or even of organising an orderly evacuation into lifeboats.

David Cameron is left with the huge and unenviable task of achieving a redefinition of Britain�s relationship with Europe. This has become almost inevitable. Most of us passionately hope that we shall be able to preserve a trading association with our partners.

But it likely to be many months before Europe�s direction of travel becomes plain, and thus before we can see what are our choices. Meanwhile, as David Cameron warned yesterday at the G20, the continent is threatened with economic stagnation, and us with it.

Back on our Devon beach, we can be reasonably sure that tomorrow the tide will surge and ebb; but we know little else about our national future in a frighteningly stormy sea.

Once again it is necessary to point out that the destruction of our economies is entirely deliberate, you can't introduce a new system unless the current system does not work as you won't be able to justify it to the people, so they destroyed the system that worked intending to replace it with one European government with the eventual aim of one world government. The fact that the people will suffer immeasurably does not matter to the so called elites, they call us cattle and children, to them we're an irritant, nothing but cannon fodder. The only solution for us is lawful rebellion as is our legal right under common law, if you do not know what that means then please look it up.