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thomas davison

'Global warming is NOT as bad as feared': Met Office under fire as it claims Earth's tempera

Global warming is not causing temperatures to rise as quickly as previously feared, the Met Office has claimed.

Today the weather agency released its revised forecast which was quickly seized upon by climate change skeptics who used the data to claim global warming has stopped.

In turn, the scientific community accused them of ignoring the weight of evidence showing that global warming is a reality, and accused the Met Office of 'falling short' of the standards expected of it.

Rise: The earlier Met Office predictions show a much sharper rise in projected global temperatures through to 2016

Rise: The earlier Met Office predictions show a much sharper rise in projected global temperatures through to 2016...

Fall: But the new computer model predicts temperatures will stay relatively flat

Fall: But the new computer model predicts temperatures will stay relatively flat

The UK's national weather service recently changed its projections for climate change through to 2017, known as 'decadal forecasting', to show a marked difference to the rate at which the world's temperature will climb.

Last year the Met Office projected that as greenhouse gas emissions increase the world's temperature will be 0.54 degrees warmer than the long term average by 2016.

Now its new experimental computer model, called HadGEM3, has provided predictions through to 2017 shows that rises will be 20 per cent less than feared - at 0.43 degrees.

If HadGEM 3 proves correct, there will have been no additional warming for two decades.

These figures are the latest development to pour doubt on green campaigners' claims about danger posed by greenhouse gasses.

Dr David Whitehouse science editor of the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF), which was set up by climate change skeptic Lord Lawson, was scathing about the Met Office u-turn.

He said: 'We are at the point where the temperature standstill is becoming the dominant feature of the post-1980 warming, and as such cannot be dismissed as being unimportant even when viewed over 30 years.
Crack: Pieces of ice breaking away from a glacier in Patagonia, southern Argentina. Phenomena like this is believed by many to be caused by global warming

Crack: Pieces of ice breaking away from a glacier in Patagonia, southern Argentina. Phenomena like this is believed by many to be caused by global warming

'It is time that the scientific community in general and the IPCC in particular acknowledged the reality of the global temperature standstill and the very real challenge it implies for our understanding of climate change and estimates of its future effects.

'It is a demonstration that the science is not settled and that there are great uncertainties in our understanding of the real world effects of the greenhouse when effect combined with anthropogenic and natural factors.�

Bob Ward, of the London School of Economics' Grantham Research Institute, hit back saying the was wrong to interpret the new data as indicating warming had stopped.

But he also condemned the Met Office for the way it released the data without an explanation of its full meaning: 'I think it's true to say this isn't the Met Office's finest hour.

'I think the Met Office would probably recognise they have created the conditions in which confusion is bound to arise.

'The skeptics have simply exploited that fact.

'I think on this particular occasion the Met Office has fallen short of the standards one would expect of them.'

Professor Myles Allen, of the University Of Oxford, said skeptics were wrong to suggest the data proves temperatures have stalled: 'While every new year brings in welcome new data to help us rule out the more extreme (good and bad) scenarios for the future, it would be equally silly to interpret what has happened since the early-2000s as evidence that the warming has stopped.'

Prof Chris Rapley, Professor of Climate Science at University College London, added: 'I despair of the way data such as this is translated as "global warming has stopped"!'

But last year James Lovelock, a pioneer of the environmental movement and author of The Gaia Hypothesis, which raised questions about the dangers of global warming, unexpectedly revised his own views.

He said: 'The problem is we don�t know what the climate is doing. We thought we knew 20 years ago.

'That led to some alarmist books � mine included � because it looked clear-cut, but it hasn�t happened.

'The climate is doing its usual tricks.

'There�s nothing much really happening yet.

'We were supposed to be halfway toward a frying world now.'
Evidence: Temperatures will not rise as rapidly as feared, according to Met Office figures

Evidence: Temperatures will not rise as rapidly as feared, according to Met Office figures

However, the Met Office claims natural factors, such as the behaviour of the sun and ocean currents, are behind the slowdown.

It comes after several major new analyses of solar and ocean patterns, and the real effect they have on temperatures.

A spokesman said: 'As with all areas of science, our knowledge is continually increasing and it is therefore not surprising that our models and predictive skill will continue to improve.

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'The fact that the new model predicts less warming, globally, for the coming five years does not necessarily tell us anything about long-term predictions of climate change for the coming century.

'Decadal forecasting relies on knowledge of the multi-year variability of the oceans and the response of the climate system to natural and human-induced forcings.

'This is an extremely challenging area of research not least because long-term comprehensive observations of the ocean do not exist to help us understand how the global oceans behave over decadal and longer timescales.'

Some climate scientists say when the natural cooling factors change, greenhouse gasses will continue forcing up global temperatures.

The government is using the global warming excuse to add another tax to everyone, what they do with the money is another question, i know they give it a way to Africa so that they can buy mercs.